Reprinted with permission from AMI HOT NEWS; an internet publication of AMI International, PO Box 40, Bremerton, Washington, 9833 7.
From the June 2010 Issue
SWEDEN – Submarine Programs Update
In mid-June 20 I 0, AMI received additional information concerning the new construction A26 submarine program and the mid-life upgrade (MLU) on two Gotland class submarines now in service with the royal Swedish Navy (RSN).
For the A26 program, the Swedish Parliament on 16 June approved moving forward with the acquisition. This will allow award of a construction contract by the fourth quarter of 2012. The June Parliamentary decision follows the 26 February 20 lO award by the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) to Kockums AB (part of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems) for the overall design phase for the program.
Kockums is the designated prime contractor for the program and Saab is designated as the supplier of the combat management systems (CMS) and the information technology (IT) infrastructure. All subsystems will be procured by Kockums through open competition. The timeline for subsystems is as follows:
- 2010 Q2-Q4 Issue requests for information (Rfl)
- 2010 Q2-Q4 Supplier evaluation
- 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2 Request for tenders (Rff) issued
- 2011 Q J-Q4 Rff submissions required
- 2011 QI – 2012 Q1 Tender evaluations
- 2012 Supplier decisions
AMl’s source indicated that the first of two A26 units is scheduled to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2019 and the second in the first quarter of 2020. Although only two A26 units are being ordered at this time, two additional units could be ordered after 2020 in order to replace the two active Gotland class submarines (commissioned in 1997) that will start a MLU in 2012. The forecaster order for the additional two hulls assumes that the RSN will continue operating a four-unit Submarine Force with no further force reductions.
Some of the Gotland MLU upgrades may include new tech- nologies that will also equip the new construction A26 subma- rines.
BRAZIL
Submarine and OPV Program Details Emerging A. Scorpene Submarine Program:In mid-June 2010, an AMI source received information concerning the Brazilian Scorpene submarine program. The new construction program for four boats began on 27 May when DCNS officially started construction of the first unit. The front section of the pressure hull will be built at DCNS’ Cherbourg Shipyard and transferred to Brazil. There the forward hull section will be joined with the stem hull section that will be built at ltaguai Construcoes Navais (ICN), a joint venture established by DCNS and Brazil’s Construtora Borberto Odebrecht (Odebrecht 59%, DCNS 41 %).
The remaining three units will be built entirely at ICN. The first unit will be delivered to the Brazilian Navy (BN) in 2017 and the remaining three on 18-month intervals in 2018, 20 l 9 and 2020; ifthe program remains on schedule.
The HLES 80 steel for the hulls is being provided by Industrial France. Major French subcontractors include: Jeumont Electric, Schneider Electric, Thales Underwater Systems (TUS), MBDA and Sagem Defense Securite. The Brazilian Scorpene submarines will be larger than their Chilean, Malaysian and Indian counter- parts due to the longer 80 day endurance requirement established by Brazil. The submarines will be 75 meters (246ft) in length with a displacement of around 2000 tons and a crew of 30-45.
Major subsystems include: DCNS SUBTICS generation 3 combat management system (CMS), TUS S-Cube sonar suite, Sagem Series 30 SMS search mast system, Series 20 attack periscope, Series 10 compact submarine radar (CSR) and SIGMA 40XP inertial navigation system (INS). Armaments include 18 WASS Blackshark heavyweight torpedoes and MBDA Exocet SM 39 anti-ship missiles (ASMs) fired from six torpedo tubes. Countermeasures will be provided by the CONTRAL TO-S anti- torpedo system.
The €6.7B (US$9.5B) September 2009 contract includes the construction of four submarines, construction of a modern naval base and support facility, modernization of the ICN shipyard, training of Brazilian engineers, transfer of technology, supply of spare parts, torpedoes and the anti-torpedo system. The contract also cover the DCNS technical support to develop and build the hull of Brazil’s first nuclear powered submarine that is scheduled to be delivered to the sea service in 2025.
EUROPEAN UNION
EUROPE – Defense Austerity Measures
As of late June 2010, AMI continues to receive information concerning the defense budget environment throughout Europe. It appears that Austerity is the word of the day and is beginning to effect force levels as well as procurement programs, current and future. Listed are some of the latest proposals that are being discussed (although some not yet finalized) by various governments in order to reduce defense funding in the near tenn:
A. UNITED KINGDOM:
- Preparatory work on the Future SSBN Program (tied to the US Program) is being delayed and will be discussed under a new Strategic Defense Re- view (SOR) announced by the new government
- Possible cancellation of units five and six of the Astute class submarine, which will also be re- viewed as part of the SDR
- Reassessment on the need for two aircraft carriers (both under construction)
- 12% budget reduction 2012 through 2017
- 20% cut in personnel, 27% cut in active aircraft and 21 % cut in active ships
B. SPAIN:
- Decommission 17 (not yet identified) ships through 2011, three Anaga class patrol boats already decommissioned on 17 June
- Defense budget cutbacks across the board, percentage and number of years not yet finalized
C. GREECE:
- Cutback of Kosovo peacekeeping mission, anti piracy mission in Somalia
- Probable delay in FREMM and other procurement programs past 2011
D. ITALY:
- Budget reduction of 10% for 2011, follow-on years uncertain
- FREMMs funded through 2011 (first six units), final four units will be decided after 2013 with delay or total cancellation being discussed as options
E. GERMANY:
- Budget reduction of US$742M for 2011, US$1.36B for 2012 and US$1.6B for 2013 and 2014
- Decommissioned the remaining six Type 206A submarines
- Troops strength reduction of 100,000 bringing the total to 150,000 (40% from current levels).
F. FRANCE:
- Possible US$5B defense budget reduction 2011 through 2013 (l.8% annually)
G. DENMARK:
- US$23 l M defense budget cut for 2011 (around 5% reduction from current budget)
As noted above, many of these proposals are in review- but AMI assesses that the fiscal crisis in the Euro zone will force implementation of these and further cuts in defense programs .
The fiscal reality is that defense budgets will be cut and force levels reduced for much of this decade and possibly beyond. These actions will obviously have a domino effect within the defense industry, requiring possible cutbacks and further consolidation. Modernization programs will become a much higher priority over the next decade as sea services attempt to keep their fleets operational while waiting for new construction ships to arrive.
GERMANY
New Export Submarine Design
In mid-June 2010, AMI received additional details on How- aldtswerke Deutshe Werft’s (ThyssenKrupp Marine) latest submarine design for export- the 210 Mod. The new submarine design is intended to provide a small, modern submarine at an attractive cost in tine with the earlier generation of widely exported type 209- with procurement price per hull estimated to range between US$250M-US$400M.
The 210 Mod- together with the type 206As coming out of German Naval Service, would be targeted at markets which do not currently operate Submarine Forces. These new entrant markets could include Bangladesh, Thailand, Philippines, Saudi Arabi and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, the 210 Mod and 206A are smaller submarines (l 000-1 toot displacement), making them attractive to navies that operate in restricted or constrained bodies of water such as the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas.
The 210 Mod design combines the best of the Type 210/212/214 and Type 209/1 400 designs. It has the size and crew of the 210, the automation, sail design and hydroplane systems of the 214, propulsion and electrical concepts as the 212 and acoustics of the 209-1400. Specifications of the 210 Mod design.
The 210 Mod is the latest in a series of small submarine designs offered to the market by European builders. Those recent small submarine designs include the DCNS SMX-23 Andrasta and the Rubin/Financier SI 000. As of this writing, there are no reported sales of these designs. However, if any of the prospective new entrant navies do go forward with plans to field a submarine capability; one of these three designs are the most likely to be chosen for new construction. Additionally, fiscal constraints and force reductions in Euro zone navies (see above) will create opportunities in the used submarine market, such as recently decommissioned German Navy Type 206A.
VARIO US DID YOU KNOW?
UNITED STATES: On 09 June 20 I 0, the keel for the ninth Virginia class submarine, USS MISSISSIPPI (SSN 782), was laid at Electric Boat’s Quonset Point Facility in Rhode Island.
RUSSIA: On 15 June 2010, the first Yasen (Project 885) class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN), RS SEVERODVINSK, was launched from the Sevmash Shipyard in Severodvinski, Russia.
FROM THE JULY 2010 ISSUE
ARGENTINA
Nuclear Submarine Plans
In mid-July 2010, the Argentine Minister of Defense, Nilda Garre, announce an initiative to develop nuclear propulsion for its Navy submarines. This statement apparently marks the first formal Government of Argentina confirmation of a nuclear submarine development program in the country, which could see the first unit in service as early as 2015. The Minister acknowledged that the program is already underway and has the support of the President and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He added that the announcement was intended to make the program publicly known.
The defense minister also acknowledged that the project would be based on a reactor developed by INV AP and that it would be installed in a TR 1700 Submarine for testing by 2013 and completed by 2015. INVAP is an Argentine high technology company that designs and builds nuclear research reactors, radiosotope production plants, nuclear fuel manufacturing plants, uranium enrichment facilities, neutron beam transport systems radiation protection instrumentation and reactor protection systems. It has built nuclear reactors for Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, Peru and Australia. Currently there are two Santa Cruz class (TRI 700) class submarines in service. Both were built by HOW and commissioned in 1984 and 1985.
Four additional TR 1700 units have been in various stages of construction at Argentina’s Astilleros Domecq Garcia shipyard in Buenos Aires. Construction of the locally-built submarines halted in 2004 due to funding issues. At the time, two of the four units under construction at Astilleros Domecq Garcia were 70% complete.
If the Argentine nuclear propulsion program continues to move forward, one of these incomplete TRI 700 units will likely be modified to handle a medium-sized reactor. This would be a less costly alternative to ordering a new hull from either a local or foreign builder.
For the reactor design, the defense ministry has indicated that a Central Argentina Modular Elements (CAREM) reactor prototype would be built and modified as a naval reactor. The CAREM is a modular lOOMW simplified pressurized water reactor with integral steam generators designed to be used for electricity generation. It can be used for electricity, generating 27 MW, or as a research reactor at up to 100 MW. It can also be used for water desalination with 8 MW in power co generation.
Recent studies have explored scaling the design up to 300 MW. The CA REM reactor has its entire primary coolant system within the reactor pressure vessel, self-pressurized and relying entirely on convection. Fuel is standard 3.4% enriched PWR fuel, with burnable poison, and required refueling annually.
The Defense Minister’s recent statement appears to be a clear reaction to Brazil’s recent moves to establish a indigenous nuclear submarine program. Argentina’s nuclear infrastructure is more than sufficient to support a naval nuclear program, although the schedule is highly aggressive and optimistic considering the funding constraints that have plagued the Argentine armed forces for the past decade. The engineering and integration challenges of adapting a nuclear power plant to an existing conventional submarine design are also formidable.
AMI believes that this program will be executable only if it is funded as the highest priority program within the entire armed forces over the next several years. Even with adequate funding, a nuclear submarine program would still probably be delayed well past 2015 due to the complexities of building, testing and integrating a reactor into a submarine, even if a nearly complete TR 1700 is used as the initial hull for the program, or an existing Santa Cruz class hull already in commission is used as the lead hull in the class.
INDIA
Vertical Launch Missile Submarine (SS/SSG) (Project 76/Project 751) Still in Holding Pattern
In mid-July 2010, AMI received information that the Indian Navy (JN) still intends to move forward with plans to pursue a second submarine acquisition program in addition to the current Scorpene program with France. Available information states the second sub program has been funded at about US$J0.7B (including technology transfer).
No Request for Proposals (RfP) has been released for this program and given the ambitious scope of other Indian Navy acquisitions- both foreign source and the local construction- plus continued reporting of delays in current Navy programs, yet another new construction program could see significant schedule slippage.
Current program issues notwithstanding, AMI believes that India is entering a crucial period for its aging Submarine Force and will have to move forward as soon as possible with new acquisitions. An RfP could come as early as 2011 in order for these six units to begin entering service in six or seven years. The six hulls in this new program added to the six hulls in the Scorpene program (currently being built at Mazagon Dock ltd (MDL but 3-five-years behind schedule) will form the core of India’s future conventional Submarine Force. Half of India’s current fore of I 0 Kilo class and four Type 209s are expected to begin decommissioning by 2015.
Companies that responded to India’s earlier 26 September 2008 Request for Information (Rfl) on submarines will be issued the Rfp and vie for the construction contract. Companies that responded to the 2008 Rfl include:
- DCNS with the Super Scorpene design.
- Navantia with the S-80 design.
- Rubin with the Amur.
- Fincantieri/rubin with the S-1000.
- ThyssenKrupp Marine with the Type 214.
One of the major reasons for the delay of this program was indecision on whether to add additional Indian yards as well as foreign construction sites in order to get the submarines built and in service faster than would be possible with construction only in Indi. The delay of the Scorner program at MDL and the looming decommissioning schedule of the Kilos and Type 209s has forced the Defense Minister into a decision to expand the program to include foreign construction, limiting MDL to building only half of the six hulls in the program.
AMI believes that choosing MDL to build three units will still risk substantial delays, as MDL is still struggling with executing construction of the six hulls in the Scorner program. Further, MDL has a full order book, and has little capacity to spare for yet another submarine construction program, which signals trouble ahead for this newest program in India’s growing naval investment plan.
GREECE
Future Programs Update and Hellenic Shipyard Details Emerging
In early July 20 I 0, AMI received updated information regard- ing the potential sale of Hellenic Shipyards as well as details of programs that arc to take place in the coming years.
AMI reported in the March Edition of Hot News that Abu Dhabi Mar (ADM) offered to purchase Hellenic Shipyards (HSY) from ThyssenKrupp with some conditions. It appears that the offer is now subject to additional conditions, as well as possible concessions ADM has offered to the Greek Government to make the deal more attractive.
Request for Proposals (RfP) were issued in 2009 and AMI anticipates a construction contract for the FREMM class destroyers to occur by the end of 2011, with construction beginning in 2012. The load-out of the six vessels will likely be similar to the French multipurpose FREMMs including the Aster 15 anti-air missile system, Herakles multi-function radar, Exocet MM40 Surface-to-Surface Missiles, and the OTO Melara 127mm gun. AMI’s source has indicated that all six units will be built at Elefsis Shipyards near Piraeus with French assistance.
The request for five 1,800 ton corvettes will likely occur around the time that the second Type 214 is launched in order to maintain a steady workload at HSY. It is likely that these units will be financed through ADM as part of the shipyard buyout plan and RfPs could be issued after 2019.
With regard to the F AC programs, AMI expects that plans for an eight-unit class of Super Vita FAC may be modified to build ten hulls. The additional two FA Cs would likely be built at Elefsis Shipyards, where the first eight were built.
The HN Flag Board also reviewed requirements for replacing or upgrading the maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), Greece currently has six P-38 Orions in very poor condition.
The HN issued a tender for four new MPA in 2009, as reported by AMI. However, the two responses to the tender came in at prices well above the available budget for the program, and the tender was subsequently cancelled. The US also offered Greece four used P-3C aircraft that would be retired from US service and upgraded with new payload capabilities as well as a new combat and avionics systems. Those upgrades would extend the life of the P-3Cs aircraft another 17-20 years after delivery.
The HN continues to review the offer of used P-3Cs to meet its MPA requirements. A decision, which could be made as early as 2011 if financing becomes available.
In addition to the ambitious new construction requirements detailed above, the HN continues to save resources in their current fleet. This includes the decommissioning of two of four Pomomik (Zubr) class ACVs, LISI ITHAKI and LI83 ZAKYNTHOS.
Should a stimulus plan be put into action regarding HSY, new construction submarines and ships and MPA, the HN seems poised to be on track to recapitalize their forces while at the same time maintaining a viable shipbuilding infrastructure.
MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS
In an ongoing effort to update AMI International’s World Missile Systems Online, the following information is provided regarding world missile developments that occurred during June and July 2010.
RUSSIA: on 30 June 2010, a Russian state investigation commission has given the recommendation to the Defense Ministry that the troubled Bulava submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) should continue testing.
Since testing on the Bulava began in December 2003, only five of twelve tests have been successful, with the latest failed launch occurring in December 2009. Although critics state that it would be much more cost effective to continue fielding the time- tested and more reliable Sineva SLBM, the new Borey class ballistic missile submarines have been designed around the new missile, basically forcing the continued development of Bu lava.
Bulava has a reported range of 8,000 km ( 4,960 mi) utilizing a three-stage combination liquid/solid propellant system. It can carry up to 10 multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRV) or a combination of MIRV warheads and decoys.
If testing resumes as planned, redesigned missiles could begin testing again as soon as November 2010.
From the Augnst Issue
ISRAEL German Funding for Corvettes and Submarines Cut
In early August 2010, AMI received information that the Gennan Government will no longer provide any monetary support to the two naval modernization programs for the Israeli Navy (IN), the two MEKO A-100 class corvettes and a sixth Dolphin II class submarine. The German Government was expected to pay 50% of the cost of the sixth submarine (a discount of US$200M of the total US$400M price tag) and 33% discount for each of the two MEKO corvettes (a discount of US$ l 32M per unit of the total US$396M per unit price tag) or a total discounted price of US$464M for all three vessels.
The decision to withdraw these funds is obviously attributed to the economic woes in Germany, still struggling to get its own budget under control and in the process of reducing its own defense expenditures. The earlier off er of assistance to Israel was aimed at assisting ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) to maintain its workforce stability as domestic and export orders have been falling over the past several years. Historically, Israel has been able to get funding assistance from the German Government in order to increase TKMS’s order book. The first five (3 Dolphin/2 Dolphin II) submarines sold to Israel were heavily discounted.
Now, more pressing domestic economic issues seem to have forced a reconsideration of this policy, making them a higher priority than helping fund Israel’s naval programs to assist TKMS.
The question now is: where does Israel go from here? Israel has three Dolphin submarines in service with two Dolphin under construction at TKMS. However, Israel does have a requirement for up to four additional submarines. Israel has also been attempting to move forward with its long delayed acquisition of two additional surface combatants. Once considering the Lockheed Martin variant of LCS, known as LCS-1, and the Northrop Grumman Modified SAAR class; Israel decided to move forward with the MEKO A-100 design on cost grounds – with the German supplied hulls coming in at a considerably lower cost than US offers due to funding assistance from Germany.
With German assistance in these two programs now off the table, Israel’s choices for the surface combatant seem to be limited to indigenous construction at Haifa Shipyard or a revisit of higher price foreign platform options. Israel will have to find other funding streams if it intends to go either route, and if opting for domestic construction, will face the additional risks involved in building its first major surface combatant locally.
At the end of the day, Israel may very well have to reconsider foreign designs if it intends on getting new surface combatants in service on a reasonable schedule. In regards to additional submarines, Israel really has no other options other than to pay full price to TKMS when and if it orders any additional submarines. JAPAN Increase in Submarine Force Levels On 25 July 2010, AMI received information that the Japanese Government will be releasing its new Defense Program Guide- lines (DPG) by the end of 2010. The new DPG will contain the mandate to increase the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) Submarine Force from its current level of eighteen units to more titan twenty.
Since the JMSDF established its current guidelines in 1976, the sea service has maintained a Submarine Force of eighteen active vessels. These guidelines have allowed for the JMSDF to strengthen its overall submarine capability in a predictable program of one-for-one hull replacements that bring newer, more capable vessels into the force and while sustaining the nation’s capability for advanced conventional submarine construction.
AMI sources have stated that the DPG ‘s increasing of the submarine fleet is specifically in reaction to the growing quantity and quality of China’s Submarine Force, which now numbers over 60 hulls. Another factor in mandating an increased JMSDF Sub Force is to be ready to offset the reduced number of United States Navy (USN) submarines anticipated to be in the Pacific in the future.
Traditionally, the JMSDF has decommissioned its submarines at or near twenty years of operational service. However, recent improvements in construction and increased capabilities, including air independent propulsion (AIP) are expected to allow the newer units of the oyashio and Soryu classes to remain in service much longer than 20 years.
Extending the service life of newer submarines will allow the JMSDF to build fewer units while still maintaining a force of more titan twenty to conform with the 2010 DPG. How many is more than twenty remains unstated, but AMI anticipates that the JMSDF submarine order of battle will reach at least 24 units. This will require six additional units, likely to be modified Soryu class hulls, to meet the new force structure requirement. The modified Sorry hulls will also be AIP capable but we could begin seeing the next generation of weapon and sensor systems integrated in the later units of the class as well as additional capabilities such as unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs).
The final two planned units of the Soryu class are being funded in 2010 and 2011 and will bring the total number in the class to eight. Should an additional six units be ordered, funding will probably be approved from 2012 through 2014 and the new units will deliver from 2017 through 2022.
Additionally, by 2022, the older units of the Harushio class will need replacement, creating the need for a follow on program to the Soryu lass. This will likely include up to eight units that will also replace the older units of the oyashio class as well, keeping the Japanese submarine building industry well booked for the foreseeable future.
TURKEY
A Bright light in the Shadow of Austerity
In August 2010, AMI received information that Turkey continues to increase its defense budget at a time when austerity measures arc hitting other parts of the world including Europe and the United States. Turkey will spend US$16B in 2010 (1.8% of GDP up from 1.6% of GDP) with US$4B being for the procurement of new equipment. Sources indicate that the defense budget will continue to grow year over year through 2015 and level out from 2015 through 2020.
Our source indicated that the increased levels through 2015 and remaining constant through 2020 are required in order to fund major programs that have just begun or will begin over the near term. For the Turkish Navy, this equates to the aggressive procurement stance that began several years ago.
As seen in the above listed programs, Turkey is continuing to invest in the modernization of its naval force primarily through local construction with assistance from foreign firms.
VARIOUS DID YOU KNOW?
ALGERIA: On 27 July 2010, the Algerian Navy took possession of its second Kilo II class submarine from Russia’s Admiralty Shipyard.
PORTUGAL: On 02 August 2010, the first of two type 209PN submarines for the Portuguese Navy, NRP TRIDENTE, arrived at the Lisbon Naval Base in Portugal.
