Reprinted with permission from AMI HOT NEWS; an Internet publication of AMI International, PO Box 40, Bremerton, Washington, 98337.
From the October 2011 issue
SOUTH KOREA-Chang Bogo Class Submarines: In late September 2011 South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) selected Sagem to modernize the Republic of Korea Navy’s (ROKN) Chang Bogo class submarines. Sagem will modernize the navigation system on the entire nine-unit class.
Each submarine will be fitted with two Sigma 40XP Intertial Navigation Systems (CNS) and integrated into the existing combat system. Sigma 40XP CNS combines high performance laser gyros with the advanced digital filtering techniques. The entire class will be upgraded by the end of 2012.
POLAND-Kobben (Type 207) Class Submarines: In late September 2011, AMI received information that Sunlight had been awarded a contract by the Polish Ministry of Defense (MoD) to supply batteries for the four Polish Navy Kobben class submarines. The four second hand Kobben class submarines were procured from Norway from 2002 through 2004.
The batteries were procured as part of a larger modernization effort by the Polish Navy. In 2010, the sea service announced a US$1.68B procurement and modernization effort that would run through 2018. One of the projects mentioned was a continuing modernization effort of the Kobben class. The four units will continue to receive hull, mechanical and electrical (H, M&E) upgrades as well as software upgrades to weapon and sensor systems and now the installation of the new batteries.
MALAYSIA-On 26 September 2011, the ex-French Navy Agosta class submarine, OUESSANT, was officially transferred to the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN). The transfer occurred in Brest
and the submarine will be moved to Malaysia on a cargo ship. OUESSANT will become a museum in Klebang. OUESSANT was procured by the RMN in 2002 and was utilized to train the new crews for the induction of the Scorpene class submarines into the RMN.
From the November 2011 Issue
INDONESIA-DSME Appears to be Preferred Supplier for Submarine Program; Contract Negotiations Underway
Throughout October and November 2011, AMI sources continue to indicate that Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) has been selected as the preferred supplier (priority bidder) for the Indonesian submarine program. However, multiple sources have indicated that negotiations are continuing and the deal is not yet final. Various sources have stated that negotiations for a three submarine purchase should be complete by the end of 2011 under a US$1.1B deal and will be followed by a construction contract, in 2012.
The South Korean offer is for the Chang Bogo (Type 209/1300) class that was built for the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN). The first two units will be built at DSME and the third unit in Indonesia with South Korean assistance. DSME has also been the primary maintainer of Indonesia’s two Cakra (Type 209/1200) class submarines and have performed overhauls on both units in South Korea.
The other apparent finalist for the Indonesian submarine program is the joint German/Turkish team with the Type 209/1400. Reporting indicates (not confirmed) that this two-submarine deal is worth an estimated US$1 B with both units being built in Turkey with German assistance. If the German/Turkish team would in fact win; the US$1 B contract would probably be signed sometime in 2012.
Sources also indicate that the other entrants, the DCNS Scorpene and Russian Kilo/Amur were eliminated during the down select process. If negotiations are completed by 2011 as indicated by AMI’s sources, the first unit could begin construction at DSME in 2012 followed by unit two in 2013.
Unit three could begin construction at PAL Shipbuilding by 2013. AMI believes that the willingness of South Korea to help develop Indonesia’s submarine building capabilities as well as the lower price per unit (US$366M per unit for three versus US$500M per unit for two under the Germanffurkish deal) puts South Korea in a very favorable position to finalize this deal.
ARCTIC REGION-Unresolved Claims Influence Future Procurements
In May 2011, the first definitive treaty regarding the Arctic region was signed by the US, Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland-All of whom have maritime claims (some of which overlap) in the region. The accord-Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic Region-covers search and rescue operations. This accord helps to illustrate the growing significance of the area. AMI also believes it will help to shape the procurement of the signatories patrol forces over the next two decades.
Although the first international treaty has been signed, one can expect significantly more difficulty when it comes to any agreement dealing with international boundaries, mineral rights and the settling of international claims.
For this reason, there has been a general posturing by some of the Arctic powers over the past several years. On 06 July 2011, Russia’s Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced its intention of deploying forces to protect its interests in the Arctic region. Two brigade-size formations would be created and they would be stationed at Murmansk. Over the next several years, Russia will invest RUB41B (US$1.34B) to improve infrastructure and transportation systems in and out of the region to support Arctic operations and deployment of the new regional force. Although the exact composition of the Arctic force is uncertain, it is estimated that it will combine elements of each branch of the Russian Armed Forces.
Additionally, the Federal Security Bureau through the State Border Guard Service has plans to establish a network of monitoring posts in the Arctic from Novaya Zemlya to Wrangel Island, a distance of approximately 3,218.5km (l,737.9nm). Lastly, Russia plans to build a US$33M year-round port facility on the Yamal Peninsula. The Russian Federation has staked a claim to a large part of the Arctic, which is thought to contain as much as a quarter of the world’s petroleum and natural gas reserves. Prime Minister Putin has said Russia is open to dialogue, but will strongly and persistently defend its interest concerning the region.
As one of Russia’s two closest regional neighbors, Canada has made protecting its sovereignty in the region a part of its national defense policy. The National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS) includes several platforms that would be used to defend its Arctic claims, most notably the Arctic Offshore Patrol Ship (AOPS) and several new icebreaking patrol platforms. Canada also has plans to establish a full time presence in the region of the Northwest Passage. In late 2009, AMI learned that Worley-Parson, an engineering firm based in Vancouver, British Columbia had won a C$900K (US$90 l K) contract; for the development of a naval base at Nunavut, near the Arctic Circle. Most recently, the call for the construction of possibly four nuclear-powered submarines at a cost of US$ I OB was also linked to protecting Canada’s interests in the Arctic region.
Denmark’s ambitions most closely overlap Russia’s in the region. Already holding all of Greenland, they intend to submit a formal claim of sovereignty over the North Pole to the UN by 2014. The Royal Danish Navy (RDN) has built two Knud Rasmussen class Offshore Patrol Vessels). These are Arctic capable patrol vessels and AMI estimates that the RON has plans for building a third hull by 2020, at an estimated cost of US$54M. Additionally, the RDN is planning a new class of OPVs that could be in service with the Danish sea service by 2022. This class of four hulls will also likely have the capability for Arctic operations.
While Iceland does not have a navy, the Icelandic Coast Guard (Landhelisresla island (Li)) possesses five ships capable of patrolling the Arctic region on fisheries protection, salvage, rescue and survey missions. Most recently, the ICGV THOR joined the Li. Additionally the sea service has plans for a class of two OPV’s that AMI believes will join the Coast Guard by 2018 at a cost of US $45M each.
Norway also lays claim to nearly 235,000 square kilometers (90,734 square miles) of Arctic territory. To enforce its potential sovereignty claim it has built the Arctic-capable Barcntshav class Royal Norwegian Coast Guard (RNoCG) OPV to replace the obsolete Nordkapp class vessels build in the 1980’s and the Royal Norwegian Navy is constructing the seven-unit Nomen class of OPVs. Each of these classes could see extensive service in the region over the years, as the issue of claims over sovereignty continue to develop.
It seems the US has only recently awoken to the significance of the region. Despite an ongoing disagreement over the demarcation of the Northwest Passage with Canada and with significant claims in the area, the US Navy and Coast Guard are only now just beginning to define their overall Arctic policy with regard to protecting its sovereignty over disputed claims. Although the US Navy occasionally sends submarines on missions in the north polar region and the Coast Guard has a few aging icebreakers, they have no current or future plans for the development of their replacement or for the procurement of naval Arctic patrol vessels.
AMI believes that Russia and Canada have the best established plans for defending their perceived claims. The other signatories are either formulating their plans or are just beginning to establish a regional policy. As the Arctic ice pack continues to recede in what appears to be a warming cycle and surveys are conducted to determine potential resources, AMI believes that approximately US$78B in resources are at stake. The need to claim and or protect these resources, unless governed by treaty, will continue to drive naval platform procurements by the Arctic powers.
From the December 2011 Issue
SOUTH KOREA-KSS-SOOA Class Mini-Submarine: The KSS-SOOA mini-submarine program began in 2008 and is currently under development at South Koreas Agency for Defence Development (ADD). The KSS-500A 37-meter (121.Jft) 510-ton submarine is the replacement for the Dolgorae class mini-submarines that are currently being phased out of ROKN service.
ADD is now selecting key systems suppliers. Construction will probably begin in 2012. At least six of the submarines will be built under this program. The KSS-500A pressure hull is divided into four compartments consisting of a combat information center (CIC); machinery room, a special operations forces area and an accommodations area.
The sail is streamlined and houses five masts including one electro-optical, one radar, one for satellite communications and the last for electronic support measures (ESM). The fifth mast will be able to handle a modular payload for the launching of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The mini-submarine has the endurance of up to 21 days and a range of 2000 nautical miles and all electrical power is provided by two banks of lithium batteries rather than the traditional electrical generators.
It has a crew of 10 and can carry an additional 14 special operations forces personnel. Its armaments will include two heavyweight (HWT) and four lightweight torpedoes (LWT). A payload interface module will enable the submarine to carry two box launchers for vertical launch (VL) missiles and mines.
RUSSIA-Yuri Dolgoruky (Borey Project 955) Class (SSBN) and Severodvinsk (Yasen Project 885) Class Submarine (SSN) Expansion: In early November 2011, among seven contracts signed by the Defense Ministry and United Shipbuilding Corporation (OCK) were orders for five Yasen and Borey class submarines. Although the precise amount of the contract was not released, the approximate price of the Severodvinsk class SSN’s is US$ I B and Borey around US$2B. Since the early 1990s both classes have suffered setbacks, including delays, controversies, questionable technologies, as well being the victims of budgets decreases. AMI believes that five-hull submarine order breaks down to two Borey SSBNs and three Yasen SSNs.
Increased Fleet Modernization: In November 2011, the VMFR completed the midlife modernization of the Antyey (Oscar II) class SSGN VORONEZH. The SSGN was modernized at Zvezdochka (two-years longer than planned) and will be followed by a modernization effort on the Orlan class heavy cruiser RFS ADMIRAL NAKHIMOV. The ADMIRAL NAKHIMOV has been laid-up since 1999 and is expected to re-enter service when complete. The modernization efforts are part of Russia’s planned retooling of its defense industry, to streamline procurement processes, increase efficiency and ultimately modernize existing units for further service while beginning a new generation of combatants and submarines to meet the VMFR’s 2020 goals.
DID YOU KNOW?
GERMANY: On 15 November 2011, the German Navy christened the fifth Type 212A class submarine, U35. U35 will enter service in 2013.
IRAN: On 26 November 2011, the Iranian Navy took delivery of three Ghadir class submarines.
UNITED STATES: On 03 December 2011, the United States Navy’s (USN) ninth Virginia class submarine, USS MISSISSIPPI (SSN-782) was christened at General Dynamics Electric Boat Facility in Groton, Connecticut.
From the January 2012 Issue
2012 Defense Budget Approved, 2013 and Beyond Uncertain
On 31 December 2011, US President Obama signed the 2012 defense budget into law (took effect on 01 October 2011). US$533.IB was requested by the Department of Defense, which excludes funding that is directly related to overseas contingency operations (OCO). US$ I 17.8B was to be set aside for OCO requirements (US$4 l .5B lower than the FY2011 ). The base line was slightly modified by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in their proposal, while OCO funding was slashed by 74-percent (due to Iraq drawdown). The overall budget signed into law by the President is approximately US$9B less than the FY2012 budget proposed by the US Congress. Although the overall defense budget is 4.2% less than the last full year budget in 2010, the base budget for 2012 is actually 3% higher than the 2010 budget.
Of this amount, approximately US$113B has been allocated for procurements (roughly 21 % of the total base) with the US Navy (USN) receiving approximately 29% of which US$14.6B is for ship construction (SCN budget).
In regards to the USN’s Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP) 2012-2016, there has been an addition of two ships in 2012 in comparison to FYDP 2011-2015. One Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) was added and one Mobile Landing Platfonn (MLP) slid from 2011 to 2012. In regards to the entire 2012-2016 FYDP, five ships were added since FYDP 2011. This is attributed to the addition of one Arleigh Burke Flight II destroyer in 2014, three T AO(X)s (2014-2016) and the one additional LCS in 2012. Although within the five-year FYDP, the second Ford class aircraft carrier has slid two years to 2015 and is now experiencing cost overruns estimated at USI.1B.
Although FYDP 2012-2016 appears to be fairly rosy at this point due to 2012 funding levels, 2013 and beyond must be considered precarious at best. FY 2013 through FY 2016 does not include any of the forced defense budget cuts (estimated at US$450B over ten years) that will take affect beginning in 2013 and last through 2022. It also does not include any implications that may stem from the new strategic defense plan (Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21 si Century Defense) just released in 05 January 2012. Admittedly, the strategic plan at the outset appears to favor the USN with a focus on its strategic ballistic missile forces, general purpose forces and the Asia-Pacific Region. Larger cuts (63%) will come from the US Army as well as additional downsizing from the Air Force and the Marine Corps.
However, when the new strategic plan is digested in combination with forced budget reductions, one can surmise that the FYDP 2013-2017 could look considerably different than today’s. The first indication of the future of the USN will be with the release of the FY 2013 defense budget proposal by Congress on 06 February 2012 that will include consideration of the just released strategic defense plan. Although the USN may be an overall winner, the types and numbers of new construction units will more than likely change as a result of the new strategy; i.e., possibly more surface combatants and submarines (ballistic and general purpose) with reductions in aircraft carriers and amphibious ships.
South Korean Type 209 Selected
On 23 December 2011, Daewoo Shipbuilding Marine and Engineering (DSME) won a US$1. I B contract for the construction of three Type 209 submarines for the Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL). DSME bested its French, German, Turkish and Russian competitors for the program. One of the keys to the win was the technology transfer agreements that will allow Indonesia to develop its submarine building capabilities at PAL Shipbuilding.
The first two units will be built entirely at South Korea’s DSME with assistance from Indonesia’s shipbuilding industry personnel. Indonesia expects to supply up to 30 personnel to DMSE for the construction of the first unit and 130 for the second unit with the intent of acquiring enough experience to build the third unit at Indonesia’s PAL Surabaya with South Korean assistance only.
The first unit is scheduled to be delivered to the TNI-AL in 2015 and 2016 and the third unit (Indonesian-built) in 2017. AMI believes that the two South Korean units will probably be delivered on schedule. However, the Indonesian unit will probably face at least a two-year delay as it is the first attempt to build a submarine in country.
The construction of the third Type 209 will give Indonesia the experience to build additional units if it desires or move forward with other submarine designs. Additionally, the TNI-AL will be able to better maintain its Submarine Force in the future without outside assistance.
WORLD MISSILE DEVELOPMENTS
RUSSIA: On 23 December 201 l, the Russian Navy successfully tested to Bulava (MACE) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) from the submarine RFS YURY DOLGORUKY in the White Sea. Both missiles reportedly hit their target on the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The last two launching make a total of 18 for the Bulava, 11 of which have been successful, four in 2011 alone.
As the four new Borey class submarines enter service through 2015, the Russian Navy has confined that the Bulava missile will equip all units of the class (16-missile per submarine) and become the standard SLBM in Russia’s inventory. Bulava, also know as the SS-NX-30/Mace weights 36.8 tons and has a range of over 8,000km (4,445nm) and can carry a mix of ten warheads and decoys.